Is South Africa at risk of undermining its own energy recovery?

Despite recent grid instability, Eskom expects no loadshedding this winter, provided unplanned outages stay below 13GW. Even if breakdowns rise to 15GW, load shedding would likely be limited to just 21 days at Stage 2 over the 153-day winter period. Rooftop solar has played a major role in this improved outlook, already adding more than 6GW of capacity to the grid and helping to ease pressure.

However, a sweeping review by the International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) threatens to make solar adoption more expensive. The proposed duties, ranging from 5% to 30% on 82 solar-related tariff codes, could drastically raise the cost of solar installations for homes and businesses.

To make matters worse, Eskom’s new retail tariff plan (RTP) has already started affecting solar users. As of last month, 20% of the Generation Capacity Charge (GCC) is being implemented, increasing electricity bills for solar-equipped households that still rely on the grid as backup. While these users consume less from Eskom, the utility argues it must still maintain capacity to supply them when needed, hence the additional charges.

Dr Andrew Dickson, engineering executive at CBi-electric: low voltage, warns that this convergence of policies could not only threaten South Africa’s winter energy stability, but also stall the country’s broader energy recovery.